DefenceSynergia Commentary – UK Defence A New Paradigm
In recent days there has been a paradigm shift in geo-strategy where a Peer aggressor has been allowed to succeed in changing UN acknowledged boundaries in Europe with the tacit blessing of the US President. For the first time since 1947, European and Canadian NATO members have been left in great uncertainty as to whether the USA would honour its Atlantic Treaty obligations, especially an Article 5 request for military support against an assailant.
Within the UK DS hopes that it detects a new willingness by HMG and HM Opposition to bolster Defence spending although it is still unclear if and when this might be funded and to what level. DS calls for HMG to provide a clear and unambiguous National Strategic pathway from which the Service Chiefs can construct UK Military Strategy and the ways and means to achieve it. DS argues it is time for the UK to adopt a more aggressive strategy based on needs rather than the current Treasury habit of only recognising the amount of threat they deem UK can afford!
A fundamental issue that the PM must address is the well-recognised 'hollowing out' of all the UK Armed Services. The urgent requirement is to restore Critical Mass across the board to a level not seen since before SDSR 2010 as a start point. A similar approach should be taken to major equipment ORBATS across the 3 services – allowing and adjusting for lessons learned in the Ukraine conflict.
TheGeo-strategy Paradigm Shift – successive European and Canadian governments have steadily reduced NATO Defencespending since 1989 despite serious objections from the USA. We now know the consequences of that error of judgement, a loss of trust. President Trump has made it clear that he expects European and Canadian NATO to pay and that his administration is no longer guaranteeing US military support unless it is on what seems to be a transactional level. You scratch my back...
It might be the FCDO position that UK can diplomatically manoeuvre the US administration back towards the status quo but DS does not believe they will be successful with this US administration. The DS view is that UK, as one of only two nuclear armed powers in Europe, must lead in European NATO whilst offering the USA what support they require if it is their intention to pivot to the Pacific AOR.
Spending, Procurement and Recruiting. This will require a major spending effort spread over several years. To take one substantial capability gap that needs filling - that of junior and senior non-commissioned officers - it takes up to 10 years depending on specialisation for a recruit to gain the qualifications and leadership experience required to fill these roles. Today's recruit is potentially tomorrow's NCO/SNCO but only after they have put in the years.
For the procurement programmes money allocated today only initiates the process, experience tells us that major programmes in MOD take years to go from the drawing board to the fox-hole! Even though there is a serious need for more efficient procurement, orders placed today will not enter service for several years unless the Urgent OperationalRequirement (UOR) process is adapted more widely.
All of which costs money, that must be found because the cost of not filling the gap left by the absence of the USA will be much higher. Imagine the huge cost in blood and treasure if our primary adversary, Russia, who hates us, unleashes the same level of air attack on British cities and bases as has been visited on the urban centres of Ukraine? Whilst the UK is deficient in most defence areas it can be safely said that when it comes to an Integrated and LayeredAnti-Missile Defence system the UK has none – beyond a disjointed collection of Typhoon aircraft, a few T45 Destroyers and half a dozen Army based medium range mobile systems and what shoulder launched short range systems we have not already given to Ukraine.
Conclusion
NATO nations have been blind-sided by the election of President Trump or more importantly, his continuing quest to see Europe and Canada pay more for their defence and his electors less. Beyond this fiduciary gripe though the US administration has made overtures towards Putinwhich are at odds with the EU and UK diplomatic stance and at the same time cast doubts on whether the USA would defend Europe! The current administration is putting freedom and democracy at great risk, Europe, Canada and the free world needs to take responsibility for its own security.
This is a paradigm shift by any measure when the long standing trust in a major ally is doubtful. Rather than deny this, the UK must seize back control of its own destiny and prepare itself for a new leading role in NATO whilst also providing optimal home defences. To do this requires an immediate major realignment of UK's financial resources. Fail to do so and this will leave the UK vulnerable to existential coercion or worse, total defeat and massive destruction at the hands of a ruthless and brutal Russian enemy.
